Thread: Munny Model Timelines (UPDATE)

UPDATE:
It is clear that based on my current timeline the CBI will not reach the 1260 projection by April 21rst of 2007. This projection was based on a press release by the MOF stating that was a goal in the first quarter of 2007. I missed the number by 12 Dinar, or .0096 USD or by less than 1%. My first projection of 1345 by the end of December 2006 actually arrived 2 or 3 weeks earlier than projected. This illustrates the constant change in pace of IQD value increase we shall see during this process. In this update I’ve added a 5 Dinar average increase to the previous 10, 15, 20, and 25 IQD per week spreads to the original post below. I still believe the pace can pick up based on how well the Iraqi security forces are put into position over the next several months. My sig will reflect still most closely to the 10 Dinar average per week. Hopefully we will see the 10 to 15 Dinar per week pan out for a timely return on our investments. But if security does not improve, we may have to be patient for a much longer wait.

Munny Model Timelines
Ok, many a peeple have asked me to provide a timeline for my Munny Model. It would have been easier had they asked me to predict next weeks Power Ball Lotto numbers, or to cure cancer, or to negotiate World peace. But since we are now currently actually seeing the Munny Model in action and within a few months we will know if it is and will be the model the CBI is using I thought I’d guesstimate a few potential timelines.

To restate the Model the current and final target rate will be 1 IQD = .27 USD. When the Iraqis reach the .20 levels of exchange rate the Model calls for Iraq to “fix” or “peg” the rate somewhere in that level. This could potentially be the end rate before the GCC Gulf Dinar is introduced or there is a possibility Iraq could readjust the rate at a later time. I allow for a potential large re-val to the GK “Heavy Dinar” level of .06 or the BH “March levels of .05 to .10 since both those values fall within the projected Munny Model value. But the most likely scenario of the Model will remain steady “upticks” or “bumps” which are currently employed by the CBI. Keep in mind that this is only a theory based on all the information and factors I’ve amassed of today. There is no 110% guarantee that these events will come to fruition and do not invest based on theory or rumour. Also never invest more than you can afford to lose in any “high risk” venture.

These timelines are based on an initial value of 1315 from the date of January 13, 2007. Keep in mind none of these timelines will be or even could be linear in nature. These values are based on an average “bump” per week but remember the Iraqis do have several holidays during the year where the exchange rate will remain constant. There will be starts and stops, big bumps, smaller bumps. As I said none of these timelines will be linear and one may be employed by the CBI and then later they may take a quicker or slower path. There is no way to exactly predict how quickly we will get to the target rate and the final timeline may be longer or much shorter than the ones outlined here. The timeline in my sig will use the most conservative potential timeline (10 Dinar average per week) but will be adjusted based on new information and the pace the CBI actually implements.

It is suggested you save or print this chart out for future reference.
5 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD June 23rd 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD March 29th 2008

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 10th 2009

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD May 30th 2009

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD March 20th 2010

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD December 25th 2010

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD October 1rst 2011

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD December 10th 2011

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 14th 2012

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD February 4th 2012

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD February 11th 2012

1 IQD = .27 USD 1 IQD = .27 USD February 18th 2012

10 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD April 7th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD August 18th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 19th 2008

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD March 29th 2008

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD August 16th 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 3rd 2009

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD May 30th 2009

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD July 4th 2009

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD July 25th 2009

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD August 1st 2009

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD August 8th 2009

1 IQD = .27 USD August 8th 2009

15 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD March 10th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD June 16th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD September 15th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD November 3rd 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD February 2nd 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD May 3rd 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD August 9th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD August 30th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD September 13th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD September 13th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD September 13th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD September 13th 2008

20 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 24th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD May 5th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD July 14th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD August 18th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD October 27th 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 5th 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD March 15th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD March 29th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD April 5th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD April 12th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD April 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD April 19th 2008

25 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 17th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD April 14th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD June 9th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD July 25th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD September 1st 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD October 27th 2007

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD December 22nd 2007

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD January 5th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 12th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD January 19th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD January 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD January 19th 2008

Munny In my opinion , I think your opinion has lost a lot of creditability. Perhaps you are wasting a lot of time with your timelines.

Why so many have him on ignore on so many forums.

Adster I agree, Going by his timelines Iraq will erupt before his 2009 date

Hey, it's a fun way to look at things. Munny has every right to post his Opinions and your reaction may be due to the fact it is not what you would like to see?

Nice work, Munny.

I personally don't see Iraq surviving past Jan 2008 without major changes in place like the HCL, FIL and a stronger currency. Munny's Model will be tossed aside if Big Oil gets in this Summer. <<--That is MY opinion.

Thank you.

Originally Posted by Hardwood

Hey, it's a fun way to look at things. Munny has every right to post his Opinions and your reaction may be due to the fact it is not what you would like to see?
Nice work, Munny.

I personally don't see Iraq surviving past Jan 2008 without major changes in place like the HCL, FIL and a stronger currency. Munny's Model will be tossed aside if Big Oil gets in this Summer. <<--That is MY opinion.

Thank you.

Your absolutely correct however its not a case of what I want to see its a case of my common sense telling me different

Munny's changed his model more times than Frank Sinatra sang 'My Way'.

Originally Posted by Hardwood

So much for being the Nice-Guy eh Addy?

Yea, I like to think so. Always answer questions/queries etc, and been more than happy too. Munny has been around a long time, he has an arrogance about him that has seen him banned from at least 1 forum I know of. He's renowned for it. Shame, cos he puts the work on it.

We'll see, he'll be the first in the queue at the bank after he's changed his Model again last minute to tie in with the reval.

Originally Posted by Adster

Munny's changed his model more times than Frank Sinatra sang 'My Way'.

lol How about more times than Michael Jacksons had nose jobs......



All in fun Munny.....that models all wet IMO.....like the Titanic!

Originally Posted by Hardwood

And you know this HOW? As stated, other forums. His numerous nicknames are testament to this. He attacks others for their thoughts as I'm entitled to give my thoughts on how many times he changes his 'Models'.

This adds to the discussion HOW? Stating how many times he changes his Model.

Your purpose for posting this WHY? As above.

Please keep your personal dislikes to yourself. Munny has every right (as you do) to voice his opinions without cheap shots like this being tossed out.


Now who used the term "toe rag" again.....????

And this has what to so with anything?