Thread: A possible RV Date!!!

Thanks for the stats. However, it would help to know just where the log jams is and how close we are to seeing it cleared to the floodgates opened…

DesertWolf

BTW: I think within the next few weeks…. JMHO

Originally Posted by oldskiier

Ok , they are at 2/3 of what they were...why isnt the dinar at 2/3 of what they were.....I'ld Take 1:2 USD.....?????

If that's when they were at $3.22,then 2 thirds is $2.15.

Math and spelling monitor #2316.

I think they can't yet support the rate they want and they are not prepared to make a major change twice.

Originally Posted by oldskiier

OK I seen the 140 B you say in debt now....I thought that is how much they just got forgiven ?????......how much will they have left...and when will this debt be finalized forgiven....so far it's all talk ...or have they signed I thought they did at the ICI..except maybe SA and Kuwait >???
......and they are pumping oil ...so why does the HCLhave to pass for the RV.....they could have a higher rate than they have now ....??

Whats holding them from a reversion is their enormous debt. It creates an unfavorable balance of payments which the Iraqi economy cannot support. One thing you should note is that Iraq is not paying the debt to other countries except for Kuwait which is mandated by UN Resolution (1483?). You are correct the debt relief is still in forms of negotiations, even the Paris Club debt has one more phase to go. The HCL has to pass to allow the massive fdi that accompanies the oil production from foreign companies. The fdi helps increase oil production which inturn creates a better export to import ratio and increases GDP since the oil companies will be employing locals which require increased goods and services. You will most likely see oil towns spring up all around Iraq once the oil companies get there greedy claws into Iraq soil.

My thoughts.

But what would the harm be in RV of the IQD like the Kuwaiti Dinar and let the market set the price until it levels out? At present their ability to pay off any debt is greatly hampered by the current rate of exchange.

DesertWolf

Originally Posted by EJAMM

Whats holding them from a reversion is their enormous debt. It creates an unfavorable balance of payments which the Iraqi economy cannot support. One thing you should note is that Iraq is not paying the debt to other countries except for Kuwait which is mandated by UN Resolution (1483?). You are correct the debt relief is still in forms of negotiations, even the Paris Club debt has one more phase to go. The HCL has to pass to allow the massive fdi that accompanies the oil production from foreign companies. The fdi helps increase oil production which inturn creates a better export to import ratio and increases GDP since the oil companies will be employing locals which require increased goods and services. You will most likely see oil towns spring up all around Iraq once the oil companies get there greedy claws into Iraq soil.

My thoughts.

should be interesting to see those new oil towns trying to drill for water wells.

Originally Posted by DesertWolf

But what would the harm be in RV of the IQD like the Kuwaiti Dinar and let the market set the price until it levels out? At present their ability to pay off any debt is greatly hampered by the current rate of exchange.

DesertWolf

I see it as this:

Why would Iraq sell a hot commodity such as oil in volume to make the same profit they could in price?

Example: Let's say Iraq sells 1 million barrels of oil at $50 per barrel. Gross profit of $50 million as an example. After the factor of debt is figured they would have say $10 million. Now eliminate the debt factor and sell the same amount of oil at the same price and your profit moves up to say $40 million after overhead. A potential savings of $30 million which goes back to the Iraqi people and not the the odious debtor countries.

My thoughts.

So the intent is not to pay off the debt, which they do not feel they owe because of Saddam, but rather to have it written off.

Originally Posted by DesertWolf

But what would the harm be in RV of the IQD like the Kuwaiti Dinar and let the market set the price until it levels out? At present their ability to pay off any debt is greatly hampered by the current rate of exchange.

DesertWolf

Don't know where you been, but you are asking some very good thought provoking questions. Keep them coming because it is making us all dig in and ask ourselves why, what and when.
Thanks
Im1vestr

Thanks... My friends say that I have a warped sense of humor when it comes to my questions. I don’t look at the quail as a meal, but “Will the orange glaze go well with the mesquite in the fire?”

DesertWolf

Originally Posted by DesertWolf

Thanks... My friends say that I have a warped sense of humor when it comes to my questions. I don’t look at the quail as a meal, but “Will the orange glaze go well with the mesquite in the fire?”

DesertWolf

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