Thread: Vietnam should devalue the dong, Harvard University's analysis

Full story: Vietnam should devalue the dong, Harvard University's analysis

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Vietnam Inflation Accelerates to 19-Month High After Currency Devaluation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...valuation.html

Vietnam’s inflation accelerated to a 19-month high, a sign that an August currency devaluation may be hurting efforts to restrain prices.

Consumer prices rose 9.66 percent in October from the same month a year earlier, according to figures released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi today. That’s faster than an 8.92 percent increase the previous month. Prices rose 1.05 percent from September.

Vietnam has devalued its currency three times in the past year as policy makers sought to cut the trade deficit. The dong’s weakness may fan inflation, which has held above 8 percent for nine consecutive months, exceeding the government’s target for this year.

“Inflation is on the rise again and we expect it to top 10 percent by year-end,” Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, said in an Oct. 11 note. “Policy makers have ignored the fact that real interest rates have turned negative as growth seems to be their primary goal.”

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s government is targeting economic growth of as much as 7.5 percent and inflation of about 7 percent next year. Gross domestic product may expand 6.7 percent in 2010, Dung told the National Assembly on Oct. 20.

Dong, Stocks

The State Bank of Vietnam weakened the currency’s reference exchange rate by 2 percent in August, citing the need to curb the trade shortfall.

The dong traded at 19,495 per dollar in the interbank market as of the close in Hanoi yesterday, from 19,099 when the central bank devalued the currency. The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange’s VN Index rose for a second day, adding less than 0.1 percent to 445.21.

“The Vietnamese dong weakness will continue to push up inflation,” Alan Pham, the Ho Chi Minh City-based chief economist for VinaSecurities, said in a monthly research note received on Oct. 15. “The possibility of another devaluation in the 2 to 3 percent range cannot be ruled out.”

Overall food prices rose 11.91 percent in October from a year earlier, and climbed 1.32 percent from September.

Asia-Pacific trade pact negotiations bring debate to Chicago

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-09-06/business/ct-biz-0906-trade-pact-20110906_1_asia-pacific-free-trade-trade-agreement

Chicago hosts 8th meeting of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a summit of representatives from the U.S., Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. The 9 nations will discuss deepening a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region.

Trade Mission to Vietnam Aims to Create American Jobs and Business Opportunities for U.S. Agriculture
	Fifteen U.S. Companies Join USDA Official to Form Business Ties and Joint Ventures on Mission

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/...entidonly=true

What a surprise !! NOT !! ..world wide real estate bubble has burst !!
Insight: Hard lessons for Vietnam as property slumps

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...78M10H20110923

Short term VND devaluation should entice capital from the globalists.
Vietnam’s Bonds Gain as Bank Cash Supply Improves; Dong Falls

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...ong-falls.html